Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4009 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 7

YV 4009 · IAH → ELP

departs 7:45 PM CT · arrives 8:56 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into ELP at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4009 · IAH → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?