Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4656
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
YX 4656 · LIT → LGA
departs 7:01 AM CT · arrives 11:00 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7
Thu 10/8 16%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±3 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
LIT is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LIT
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LIT (origin)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.