YX 4669 · MSN → ORD

departs 6:10 AM CT · arrives 7:21 AM CT

Your aircraft is N129HQ (E75S), coming in as YX 4601 from ORD: landed 10:43 PM CT.

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4669 · MSN → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?