Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5664
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
YX 5664 · MSN → LGA
departs 6:54 AM CT · arrives 10:27 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7
Thu 10/8 11%
Sat 10/10 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at MSN that day
Weather at each end
MSN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 2 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.