Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5817
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
YX 5817 · HXD → ATL
departs 12:27 AM CST · arrives 1:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7
Thu 10/8 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave HXD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HXD
↑
HXD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
HXD (origin)
Gusts —
Ceiling —
Visibility —
Precip —
ATL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.