Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4926 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 8

9E 4926 · LGA → STL

departs 6:42 PM ET · arrives 8:20 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4926 · LGA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?