Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5151 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 8

9E 5151 · BGR → JFK

departs 4:08 PM ET · arrives 5:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from BGR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BGR (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

JFK (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5151 · BGR → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?