Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5397 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 8

9E 5397 · DTW → BUF

departs 5:46 PM ET · arrives 7:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into BUF at that hour are often late

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5397 · DTW → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?