9X 922 · MKK → LUP

departs 12:19 PM HT · arrives 12:56 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LUP more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LUP?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MKK

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Arrivals into LUP at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LUP

Weather at each end

MKK (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

LUP (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9X 922 · MKK → LUP

Odds over time

How late will it get to LUP?