9X 923 · LUP → MKK

departs 12:53 PM HT · arrives 1:30 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MKK?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MKK

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LUP

↓ Arrivals into MKK at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LUP (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MKK (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9X 923 · LUP → MKK

Odds over time

How late will it get to MKK?