AS 1103 · HNL → LIH

departs 2:38 PM HT · arrives 3:32 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.3 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ LIH is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.30 in

LIH (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1103 · HNL → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?