Schedule: FAA flight plans.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1416 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 8:48 AM HT (22 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Thursday, October 8 Tomorrow

AS 1416 · HNL → OGG

departs 8:13 AM HT · arrives 9:06 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ 8am departures from HNL are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.04 in

OGG (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1416 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?