AS 267 · HNL → SEA

departs 11:03 AM HT · arrives 7:27 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

43% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.3 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ 11am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.30 in

SEA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 267 · HNL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?