Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4821
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
C5 4821 · IAH → AMA
departs 9:36 AM CT · arrives 11:25 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 10/7 11%
Thu 10/8
Sat 10/10 19%
Sun 10/11 22%
Mon 10/12 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at AMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AMA?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
9am departures from IAH are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AMA
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AMA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.