Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4871
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
C5 4871 · IAD → ROC
departs 5:31 PM ET · arrives 6:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8
Sun 10/11 16%
Mon 10/12 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ROC (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.