Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4889
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
C5 4889 · ALB → IAD
departs 9:56 AM ET · arrives 11:28 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 10/7 6%
Thu 10/8
Sat 10/10 13%
Sun 10/11 12%
Mon 10/12 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave ALB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
C5's recent on-time record
↓
9am departures from ALB are usually not late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ALB
Weather at each end
ALB (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.