Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
IBERIA · FLIGHT IB 382
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
IB 382 · SJU → MAD
departs 5:16 PM AT · arrives 7:28 AM CEST
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/7 15%
Thu 10/8
Sun 10/11 21%
Mon 10/12 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at MAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MAD?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↑
This route's recent record
↑
5pm departures from SJU are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into MAD at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
MAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.