Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

JAPAN AIRLINES · FLIGHT JL 785 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 8

JL 785 · HNL → NRT

departs 1:19 PM HT · arrives 4:18 PM JST

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at NRT more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to NRT?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 1pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ Arrivals into NRT at that hour are usually not late

↓ NRT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.54 in

NRT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

JL 785 · HNL → NRT

Odds over time

How late will it get to NRT?