Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
STARLUX · FLIGHT JX 12
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
JX 12 · TPE → SFO
departs 12:06 AM CST · arrives 8:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 16%
Thu 10/8
Sat 10/10 29%
Sun 10/11 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave TPE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Visibility down to 0.9 mi forecast at SFO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPE
Weather at each end
TPE (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.