Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

LOT · FLIGHT LO 36 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 8

LO 36 · SFO → WAW

departs 4:15 PM PT · arrives 12:59 PM CEST

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at WAW more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to WAW?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at WAW

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

WAW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LO 36 · SFO → WAW

Odds over time

How late will it get to WAW?