Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 1511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
MX 1511 · MCO → MSY
departs 9:18 AM ET · arrives 10:12 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/8
Sun 10/11 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
MX's recent on-time record
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.78 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.