Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 1557
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
MX 1557 · VRB → RDU
departs 6:11 AM ET · arrives 8:08 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/8
Sun 10/11 14%
Mon 10/12 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave VRB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.4 in of rain forecast at VRB that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
MX's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
VRB (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.40 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.