Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 2071
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
MX 2071 · MCO → RDU
departs 4:25 PM ET · arrives 6:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Thu 10/8
Sat 10/10 33%
Sun 10/11 37%
Mon 10/12 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
11%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.78 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.