Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 2322
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
MX 2322 · RDU → VRB
departs 1:22 PM ET · arrives 3:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Thu 10/8
Sun 10/11 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at VRB more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at VRB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at VRB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to VRB?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.4 in of rain forecast at VRB that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
1pm departures from RDU are often late
↓
Arrivals into VRB at that hour are usually not late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
VRB (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.