Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 411
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
MX 411 · VRB → BWI
departs 12:01 PM ET · arrives 2:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/8
Sun 10/11 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave VRB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at VRB that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
12pm departures from VRB are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
VRB (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.10 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.