Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ANA · FLIGHT NH 184 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 8

NH 184 · NRT → HNL

departs 8:11 PM JST · arrives 8:38 AM HT

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at NRT

↓ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

NRT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.54 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

NH 184 · NRT → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?