Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ANA · FLIGHT NH 7 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 8

NH 7 · SFO → NRT

departs 12:40 PM PT · arrives 3:22 PM JST

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at NRT more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to NRT?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Visibility down to 0.9 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ NRT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.9 mi Precipnone

NRT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

NH 7 · SFO → NRT

Odds over time

How late will it get to NRT?