OO 4695 · SFO → ACV

departs 9:17 PM PT · arrives 10:41 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at ACV more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ACV?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at ACV that day

↑ 9pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ACV (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4695 · SFO → ACV

Odds over time

How late will it get to ACV?