Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2122
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
PD 2122 · EWR → YTZ
departs 9:03 AM ET · arrives 10:42 AM EDT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 10/7 5%
Thu 10/8
Sun 10/11 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at YTZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YTZ?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
EWR is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
YTZ (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.