Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5870
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
PT 5870 · BUF → PHL
departs 7:34 PM ET · arrives 9:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Wed 10/7 15%
Thu 10/8
Sun 10/11 24%
Mon 10/12 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
7pm departures from BUF are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.