Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5949
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
PT 5949 · ORF → PHL
departs 3:11 PM ET · arrives 4:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/8
Sun 10/11 31%
Mon 10/12 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.