Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2018
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
QX 2018 · SAN → LAS
departs 4:57 PM PT · arrives 6:23 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Wed 10/7 25%
Thu 10/8
Sat 10/10 34%
Sun 10/11 47%
Mon 10/12 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.