Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2029
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
QX 2029 · PDX → SBA
departs 5:31 PM PT · arrives 7:54 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/7 12%
Thu 10/8
Sun 10/11 18%
Mon 10/12 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
SBA usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.