Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2218
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
QX 2218 · SMF → SAN
departs 4:57 PM PT · arrives 6:43 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Wed 10/7 22%
Thu 10/8
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.