Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SUN COUNTRY · FLIGHT SY 8274 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 8 Yesterday

SY 8274 · STL → IFP

departs 2:11 PM CT · arrives 3:43 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at IFP more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IFP?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 2pm departures from STL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IFP

↓ Arrivals into IFP at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IFP (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 8274 · STL → IFP

Odds over time

How late will it get to IFP?