Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 290
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
TK 290 · SFO → IST
departs 1:03 PM PT · arrives 2:24 PM +03
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/8
Mon 10/12 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at IST more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to IST?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Visibility down to 0.9 mi forecast at SFO that day
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.9 mi Precip none
IST (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.