Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 9
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8 Tomorrow
TK 9 · IST → LAX
departs 2:31 PM +03 · arrives 5:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/8
Sat 10/10 20%
Sun 10/11 23%
Mon 10/12 19%
Tue 10/13 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±5 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave IST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IST
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
IST (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.