Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 137 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 8

UA 137 · GUM → NGO

departs 7:38 AM ChST · arrives 10:39 AM JST

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at NGO more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to NGO?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain forecast at GUM that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ 7am departures from GUM are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at NGO

Weather at each end

GUM (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility5.33333 mi Precip1.40 in

NGO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 137 · GUM → NGO

Odds over time

How late will it get to NGO?