Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 157 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 8

UA 157 · GUM → ROR

departs 11:45 PM ChST · arrives 1:04 AM +09

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at ROR more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROR?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.3 in of rain forecast at GUM that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ GUM usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

GUM (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.29 in

ROR (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 157 · GUM → ROR

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROR?