Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 7811
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
Y4 7811 · FAT → MLM
departs 1:45 AM PT · arrives 6:38 AM CST
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Thu 10/8
Sat 10/10 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MLM more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MLM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at MLM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MLM?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↑
FAT is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MLM
↓
Arrivals into MLM at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
FAT (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MLM (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.