Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 7933
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
Y4 7933 · ONT → MLM
departs 2:44 PM PT · arrives 7:28 PM CST
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 11%
Thu 10/8
Sat 10/10 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MLM more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MLM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MLM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MLM?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
2pm departures from ONT are often late
↓
Arrivals into MLM at that hour are usually not late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ONT (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
MLM (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.