Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4043 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 8

YV 4043 · IAH → SAT

departs 4:31 PM CT · arrives 5:41 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4043 · IAH → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?