Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4053 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 8

YV 4053 · SAT → IAH

departs 7:32 PM CT · arrives 8:52 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ IAH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4053 · SAT → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?