Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6167 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 8

YV 6167 · IAH → MEM

departs 6:06 PM CT · arrives 7:51 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MEM at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6167 · IAH → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?