Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6217 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 8

YV 6217 · IAH → ELP

departs 2:36 PM CT · arrives 3:48 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6217 · IAH → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?