tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4401 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

YX 4401 · ILM → LGA

departs 11:23 AM ET · arrives 1:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 115h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Thursday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
20% chance · ±9 pts +0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 6.5d Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to LGA?

  1. On time or early
    79%
  2. 15–30 min late
    3%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    5%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    9%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    3%
  6. Cancelled
    2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.