tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5611 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

YX 5611 · LGA → MSN

departs 5:39 PM ET · arrives 7:17 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 162h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Thursday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
33% chance · ±15 pts – · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to MSN?

  1. On time or early
    66%
  2. 15–30 min late
    10%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    11%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    9%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    3%
  6. Cancelled
    2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.