AS 839 · HNL → SJC

took off 12:01 PM HT · expected to land 7:56 PM PT (scheduled 11:43 AM HT → 7:51 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJC?

LIVE

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 50% of the time recently

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SJC at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at SJC that day

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 839 · HNL → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?