tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1511 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

AA 1511 · DFW → SAN

departs 8:26 PM CT · arrives 9:33 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 165h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Saturday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
47% chance · ±15 pts – · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to SAN?

  1. On time or early
    51%
  2. 15–30 min late
    17%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    16%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    7%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    6%
  6. Cancelled
    3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.