CA 986 · SFO → PEK

departs 1:18 PM PT · arrives 5:54 PM CST

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at PEK more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±7 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PEK?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Arrivals into PEK at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PEK

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

PEK (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CA 986 · SFO → PEK

Odds over time

How late will it get to PEK?